Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.533055 2.699695 2.877354 3.081830 3.311907 3.564262 3.864032
2025-03-30 2.267421 2.489087 2.737834 3.040899 3.404777 3.833849 4.387926
2025-04-06 2.091229 2.340088 2.628955 2.994906 3.455148 4.028119 4.818760
2025-04-13 1.941663 2.202346 2.512349 2.916494 3.442940 4.126858 5.123463
2025-04-20 1.871068 2.150595 2.491061 2.947972 3.565260 4.404700 5.704958
2025-04-27 1.823065 2.120991 2.491984 3.003682 3.719866 4.739469 6.423387
2025-05-04 1.780215 2.093566 2.491584 3.054469 3.868846 5.080872 7.217322
2025-05-11 1.713724 2.031047 2.439948 3.028985 3.902725 5.248579 7.749196
2025-05-18 1.655971 1.976398 2.394736 3.007704 3.938473 5.420342 8.322368
2025-05-25 1.601381 1.922946 2.347610 2.979301 3.958942 5.566861 8.878243
2025-06-01 1.551219 1.872939 2.302220 2.949613 3.973378 5.702762 9.444142
2025-06-08 1.515558 1.840782 2.279653 2.951605 4.037631 5.933520 10.282379
2025-06-15 1.491653 1.824285 2.279094 2.988023 4.164257 6.302692 11.594336
2025-06-22 1.445850 1.775678 2.230282 2.946748 4.155142 6.409906 12.280292
2025-06-29 1.402493 1.728843 2.181880 2.902984 4.137462 6.496955 12.946682
2025-07-06 1.353076 1.671864 2.116420 2.828526 4.059389 6.449304 13.200338
2025-07-13 1.335955 1.659806 2.116254 2.858422 4.171032 6.819128 14.948797
2025-07-20 1.326035 1.657429 2.130008 2.911305 4.329538 7.321427 17.511882
2025-07-27 1.315303 1.653336 2.140744 2.959486 4.483799 7.847062 20.669983
2025-08-03 1.287021 1.622788 2.109874 2.935314 4.494086 8.023331 22.444382
2025-08-10 1.261186 1.595038 2.082246 2.915122 4.510451 8.218731 24.540572
2025-08-17 1.235019 1.566054 2.051663 2.888165 4.510678 8.372368 26.608955
2025-08-24 1.209801 1.537796 2.021257 2.859981 4.506042 8.512959 28.817798